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Author Topic: Using Bitcoin  (Read 5992 times)

The Loose Goose

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Re: Using Bitcoin
« Reply #45 on: April 17, 2018, 03:07:32 PM »
Hi guys,

Sorry been forever since I logged in.  I think the pain is over, one never knows in this space.  But looks like institutions formed a double bottom called an 'adam & eve'.  Interestingly, they formed it by supporting price around the 6-6.5k mark which allows small profit for Btc mining operations in countries where they are heavily invested.  Keep in mind cost of production varies country to country, some noteworthy examples are the USA at $4,800, Canada just over 4.2k, most of Western Europe 8-8.5k. Does make sense not to drop price below cost of production for long as it could cause some disruption to the ecosystem. 

Altcoins bled out in most cases to or near November lows against Btc (meaning shitcoin x/btc graph).  About 10 days ago they started to show life after a painful 2 months.  Personally, I think we are ramping up for a 6-12 week alt season.  The moves should be considerably larger than we saw in the 'test pump' Dec/Jan rise.  Things are starting later than last year and the bleed out from January was more profound than I expected, I dumbly gambled by buying (converting Btc to Alts) early March as I thought Btc was going to go and stabilize over 12k.  So, am under water a little.

Anyway, could be a good time to grab a few coins of your liking, take 'betterish projects' near their bottom against btc.  Buy them, hold them till they pump and make sure you sell them because when its over, they will drop fast for a bit, then steadily bleed out until Oct/Nov.  When you sell, sell into Btc and hold until Btc does its next big pump, probably similar time frame as last year (Oct-Dec).

It's unclear whether Btc will chop in a range during the alt season (6k-12k).  I do feel if we break above 11.7k we will see some additional market cap slide into the space that is currently on the sidelines due to uncertainty (many consider a break of 12k defines the end of the correction).  Having said that, I mean Btc is gonna be worth a shit ton more than it is now by year end, so can't hurt to be buyers now.  It may go back and touch 7k area, and it is conceivable (but very unlikely to me) that the correction isn't even done and we see a spike drop to 4.4k or 5k.  However, when factoring risk/reward, is that an acceptable paper loss if we are going to see new highs before the end of the year? If you get too greedy trying to buy the bottom you might miss the bus altogether.

If I had to guess, I don't think we break 12k until after altcoin season is finished, so probably into late June/July.  Last year however, it did go straight up during altcoin season so you never know.  What is likely though is that when Altcoin season is done, the smart money who invested in Altcoins (market makers that create the pumps and sell the rips), they will pour market cap back into Btc, which should drive BTC price up.  I'd expect a 2nd half of year significant rise, if I told you where I thought it was going to be by Christmas, you'd be surprised.  But is pointless because longer range targets are dumb.  It did go from 800 to 19.5k in 2017 (24x) whilst really only touching 1% of investors at best.  If 6k is the 2018 low, what if we have even half that factored growth?

Learned a fair amount on this correction and looked closer at historical price action in years past.  There are patterns and I don't think i'll make all the dumb mistakes I made in the last year.

The most reassuring fact is the technology and surroundings are extremely bullish.  Ln coming along very nicely on mainnet; regulators seem interested in transparency for audit functions, not to stifle growth; and big business is investing in and ramping up infrastructure to embrace it's future. 

It's to each there own, buyer beware and so on.  Always possible a black swan event cripples the space i.e. Quantum Computing hack, but in all likelihood, those that hold it get richer, those that wanted to but didn't pull the trigger continue to think about what could have been.  Forget altcoins and trading, buying a little bit of Bitcoin and holding it in a hardwallet for a few years and ignore the short term volatility and noise, don't think you can do too much wrong.

Later

EEZEE

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Re: Using Bitcoin
« Reply #46 on: April 18, 2018, 01:18:09 PM »
Very cool - well written.  Thanks for the update.  Your very last part is what I hope for the best.

The Loose Goose

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Re: Using Bitcoin
« Reply #47 on: May 23, 2018, 01:08:58 AM »
Well, market makers really doing there thing.  Lot of leverage traders getting liquidated in these chops, no free rides. Regular Joes getting impatient, angry, and giving up as well.  Fundamentally, still as bullish as ever.

I do think we'll paint the higher low on Btc probably around $7500-7700 then up she goes (previous lows $5,900 and $6450ish).  Could be a another pull back or 2 before we break $10k, but I think this is the last time we see under $8k.  It's a more or less straight shot to $14k if I had to guess.

Also, I think it's about time for alts to get a move on. They bled back farther than expected for me after a good April.  The good and bad:

-Charts say its a go 'lots of double bottoms'
-The seasonality says 'get a move on cause liquidity goes down in July/Aug, people like to enjoy the summers'
-BTC says 'more likely to pump once Btc breaks 10k, creating more confidence that the correction is in fact complete'.  Also, this means more market cap that can trickle down into alts.

End of the day its all speculation, but I'm gonna go out on a limb and say its almost time for people to love Crypto again.

J

EEZEE

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Re: Using Bitcoin
« Reply #48 on: May 29, 2018, 12:31:50 AM »
Sure hope you're right - it's been a while and we're getting REKT over here.